Author Archives: Ian Richard Button

Germany’s Reluctant Leadership

Germany wants to have its cake and eat it too, but when the baker is unemployed and the mill is out of order, cake production is dubious at best.  Such is life in the European Union.  Germany’s southern neighbors, particularly Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece, are suffering.  Unemployment in these countries is higher than at any other point in modern times, with as many as 60 percent of Spanish youths unable to find gainful employment.  Political unrest, an unfortunate side effect of economic turmoil, has taken root.  People want work, security, and a return to normalcy. 

For many in Southern Europe, the promise of a better tomorrow lies to the north.  France, often considered one of Europe’s foremost powers, is wrestling with its own economic stagnation and has been largely unable to coalesce under the unpopular Hollande regime.  The United Kingdom, home to the world’s second-largest stock market and the continent’s second largest economy, is still reeling from the effects of the 2008 financial crisis.  Thanks to its interconnectedness with the United States, the British Isles were hit especially hard by the financial collapse, prompting a decline in home prices and a rise in household debt.  The Scandinavian countries, while economically resilient and politically stable, lack the means to bail out Southern Europe. 

With this in mind, it is quite easy to understand Germany’s attractiveness.  Under the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany grew during the 2008 financial crisis, one of the only developed nations to do so.  Since then, Germany has continued to grow.  Unemployment stands at a mere 5.2 percent, some five times lower than the 27.6 percent unemployment rate currently afflicting Greece.  German gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita), a common measure of countries’ wealth, is a healthy $39,100.  While this indicator is often quite a bit higher in small developed countries such as Luxembourg ($79,168), Norway ($65,656), and Switzerland ($55,066), do not be misled.  British GDP per capita comes in at $37,500.  France reports a rather meager $29,819 GDP per capita.  Among Europe’s largest, most powerful countries, Germany is alone in first place.

It is for this reason that so many in the European Union want Germany to assume a greater level of responsibility and lead the union out of the ongoing crisis.  In their eyes, no other member state is better equipped to turn things around. 

At first, Germany appeared to embrace its new role with grim determination.  When the waves of the 2008 financial crisis first reached the shores of Europe, Germany came to the rescue with bailouts funded by German taxpayers.  Since then, some $320 billion (from the International Monetary Fund and Greece’s European partners, led by Germany) have been poured into Greece alone.  Though Germany’s bailouts are far from selfless–Germany benefits tremendously from the free flow of its goods and services across union borders–it is worth noting that Germany’s government debt to GDP ratio has jumped considerably as a result of its bailouts.  As of 2008, debt to GDP stood at an impressive 64.9 percent.  It is now 81.9 percent.    

This bitter German medicine, however, has proven hard to swallow; since accepting the bailouts, several nations have criticized the austerity terms dictated by Berlin.  To correct the imbalance between spending and saving, governments accepting bailout moneys were required to slash spending dramatically.  The resulting cut in government services resulted in less generous healthcare, less police protection, and pay cuts.  Understandably, these measures were less than popular.

 In Cyprus, one of the world’s premier banking havens and a recent recipient of bailout moneys, German austerity measures provoked a considerable anti-Merkel backlash.  Angry Cypriots drew Hitler-esque mustaches on posters of Angela Merkel, likening the injustice of austerity to the tyranny of Nazi Germany.  While extreme, Cyprus was not alone in making the comparison.  Greeks, for example, reacted to the bailouts by creating photoshopped images of Merkel in an SS guard uniform.  Around Europe, it has become popular to demand an end to “German fiscal fascism”.

In Berlin, where bullet holes still riddle the walls of churches, schools, homes, and businesses, such reminders of Nazi domination diminish what little political ambition Germans still harbor.  In many ways, the desire for leadership has been eradicated from German society.  The German president, unlike his counterpart in the United States, has so little power that most Germans do not know his name.  Chancellor Merkel, the country’s most visible politician, serves only as the head of government.  As such, she has very limited input on military affairs.  F�hren, the German verb for “lead”, remains taboo.  Many have adopted the germanified verb leiten, which was adapted from the English word “lead”.      

In his article “The German Election: What Europe Expects–And What Germany Will Not Do,” Ulrike Guerot of the European Council on Foreign Relations analyzes Germany’s leadership reluctance thusly:

“The biggest risk, therefore, is of European post-election disillusion because Germany’s approach to Europe is unlikely to change. Berlin quite simply lacks the political ambition to provide clear leadership in turbulent times. Rather, it hopes to influence events by force of example, getting others to transpose the German model of thriftiness at home and competitiveness abroad into their own financial, economic, and political cultures. This, most Germans believe, is the only way for Europe to succeed in an increasingly competitive and globalised world.”

Whether the rest of the European Union ultimately adopts this philosophy remains to be seen.        


Location: Berlin - Krausnickstrasse

Im Osten

Even with intra-Asia tourism on the rise, Western Europe remains a top destination for vacationers.  Of the five most visited countries in 2012, three hail from Western Europe: France, Spain, and Italy.  France, the single most visited country in the world, drew an estimated 83 million tourists in 2012.  To put this figure in perspective, 83 million is roughly 1.25 times larger than the population of France (66 million) and 16 million larger than the same number of tourists drawn to the second place United States.

If one were to expand the tourism rankings to include the top 10 most visited countries in the world, Europe would remain the world’s tourism heavyweight.  Coming in at numbers six, seven, eight, and nine, respectively, are Turkey, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Russia.  
Perhaps unsurprising is Eastern Europe’s lack of representation on this list.  The region’s slow emergence from communist rule, comparatively unstable economies, and heretofore refusal or inability to adopt the euro have dampened prospects for tourism.  As a result, just two of the seven European countries to make the list are eastern.  
It is for this reason, however, that I jumped at the opportunity to go east.  At the risk of sounding too cliche, I prefer to take the path less traveled when given the choice.  Through the Institute for the International Education of Students (IES), my host institution in Germany, I had the ability to do just that.  On September 21 I left for Vienna, our first destination.  The following six days included trips to Budapest and Krakow.
Almost immediately, the region’s eastern vibe became apparent.  Thanks to the Habsburg Dynasty’s success in conquering eastern lands, Vienna enjoyed vast wealth for many generations.  Annexing neighboring territories brought tax revenue and plunder to Vienna, helping to finance the construction of many of the city’s most famous landmarks.
Today, however, Vienna is a sleepy city of 1.7 million people.  Each Sunday, stores and shops around the city close their doors in all but the most touristy districts.  In these districts and elsewhere throughout the city are Vienna’s world-famous cafes.  Here the Viennese order kaffee und kuchen (coffee and cake), one of the most iconic Viennese past-times. These cafes traditionally serve cappuccinos, sachertorte (a chocolate cake unique to Vienna), and gelato.  Other popular Viennese foods include wienerschnitzel and Mozartkugeln (chocolate-coated pistachio balls).      
Thanks to Hungary’s historical ties to the Ottoman Empire, it too feels eastern.  Beneath my feet was sand, a far cry from the rich brown soil found in Germany and Austria.  Perhaps owing to the city’s occupation during the reign of the Ottoman Empire, many of Budapest’s most famous buildings have an eastern flare.  For example, St. Stephan’s Church, one of the city’s most visited landmarks, became a mosque when the city was conquered by the Ottoman Turks.  The food, while distinctly Hungarian, also bore resemblance to eastern cuisines in that it was often hot and spice-laden.
Krakow, in my opinion the most beautiful of the three cities, still bears the scars of Soviet rule.  Entire districts were built in the gray, utilitarian style so particular to Soviet Russia.  Fortunately, however, Krakow’s most beautiful monuments and buildings survived both World War II and Soviet rule.  A section of the city’s medieval wall is still intact and draws a considerable number of tourists.  Along the wall many artists sell their wares, creating a friendly, artistic atmosphere.  Just a short walk from the wall is the city’s Jewish Quarter, now a thriving cultural center full of art galleries, museums, and cafes.  Also nearby is Wewel, the castle inhabited by generations of Polish royalty.  
Though each of the cities exceeded my expectations, Krakow was far and away my favorite.  The people there were genuine, friendly, and convivial.  As one Polish woman told me, Poland’s history of misfortune at the hands of other imperial dynasties has cultivated a reverence for the present.  The Poles celebrate “the here and now” because they do not know if tomorrow will bring war and strife, as it so often has over the course of Polish history.  I found this sentiment to be true, as most of the Poles I interacted with were both grounded and warm.

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Location: Berlin - Mitte

Germany says no to negative political ads

The latest round of German parliamentary elections is right around the corner, and yet if it were not for the occasional poster or television advertisement, one would never know that the most powerful political seat in Europe is up for grabs; conspicuously absent are the last-minute publicity stunts, mud-slinging, and yellow journalism that so typify high-profile elections in the United States.      

In stark contrast to the billion-dollar campaigns run by Barack Obama and Mitt Romney leading up to the 2012 presidential election, Germany’s major parties both expect to spend between $26 and $33 million over the course of the entire campaign.  In any American swing state, let alone the entire country, spending so little money would be utterly unthinkable.  Neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party could hope to win an election while campaigning on such a tight budget. 

In Germany, however, parties can–and do–win with modest budgets and comparatively little public exposure.  Thanks to laws and cultural norms that dictate a limited media presence, the average German sees far fewer advertisements than do their American counterparts.  According to a September 13 Politico article entitled Imagine This: In Germany, one TV ad per candidate, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Germany’s largest and most powerful party, will run its one and only television advertisement 176 times this election season.  By comparison, some 219,000 advertisements were run in Ohio alone during the 2012 presidential campaign.  Florida recorded similarly gaudy numbers; total spending on advertisements surpassed $160 million.   

The same Politico article then goes on to explain the dearth of advertising during the German election cycle; “Part of the reason for the stark difference in TV advertising is the way German system works: each party is allotted a certain amount of airtime on the two public TV networks, ZDF and ARD, based on their vote share in the last election and the number of members in their party.  For the major parties, the CDU and the SPD, that’s eight times on each channel — over the entire course of the campaign. Ads for the smaller parties — the Greens, the Free Democratic Party and the Left Party — will run four times each on ARD and ZDF.”

Furthermore, German political advertisements strike a decidedly different tone than do most in the United States.  Absent from the vast majority of German ads is negativity; according to an article published by the Economist on August 25 entitled Posters everywhere but no attack ads, the author says negativity is absent mainly “because the Germans really don’t want to go there. If anybody were to get personal and nasty on an American scale, he or she would get society’s red card and be out. This may be the best thing about German democracy.” 

Similarly intriguing is the actual content of German political ads.  Typically, according to Politico, “instead of myriad ads on different topics featuring different people, each party in Germany typically releases just one main minute-and-a-half ad for the entire election.  The ad from Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union, capitalizing on Merkel’s high level of personal popularity, features the chancellor speaking directly to the camera for 90 seconds.”  By comparison, the opposition party (SPD) “released an ad showing regular people speaking at a podium in all different cities across the country, with only a short shot of SPD chancellor candidate Peer Steinbr�ck at the end.  ‘Peer Steinbr�ck didn’t want to be the focal point of our ads,’ SPD General Secretary Andreas Nahles said when the ad was released. ‘He explicitly wanted these ads to be about regular people and their genuine concerns.'”

This is, perhaps, a good move for Steinbr�ck, as he has largely failed to ingratiate himself with the public.  Less charismatic than Merkel and infamous for giving highly paid speeches, his name does not exactly warm the hearts of the working class.  Nevertheless, Steinbr�ck’s party has not resorted to mudslinging in order to chip away at Merkel’s impressive lead in the polls.  The most controversial posters in Berlin promote relatively benign ideas by U.S. standards, with the CDU saying “Germany is strong and shall remain so.” and the SPD saying “the ‘we’ decides.”  Even fringe parties such as die Linke, a DDR-remnant, are no more provocative than “Sharing is fun: millionaires’ tax!” 

By some standards, this may make for a sleepy election.  But sleepy or not, the Bundeswahl is very much worth paying attention to, as the chancellor-to-be will be tasked with guiding a divided Europe out of the ongoing euro crisis.  For the currency and the political union to survive, a deft hand is necessary, be it the center-right hand of Merkel or the center-left hand of Steinbr�ck. 


Location: Krausnickstraße, Berlin, Germany

Pride and Business

Conspicuously absent from the streets of Berlin is the country’s famous tri-color flag.  One could easily wander through downtown without seeing a single red, black, and gold banner.  Even among the city’s most prized landmarks there exists a remarkably subdued sense of pride.  In this sense, Berlin could not be more different from its American counterpart.  With American flags on virtually every street corner and monuments commemorating the greatest moments in the country’s relatively brief history, Washington, D.C. is a bastion of patriotism and makes no effort to disguise its pride.  For most Americans, patriotism comes easily and constitutes an important element of national identity.    

In Berlin, however, pride carries a very different–and often negative–connotation.  National pride of the sort Americans so often exhibit would almost certainly ostracize anyone so bold as to declare himself a patriot.  In 2001, Germany erupted following two very public, very contentious statements made by prominent politicians.  One, Cornelia Schmalz-Jacobsen, was quoted as saying, “Not even over my dead body could I say that I am proud to be a German.  I even have great difficulty singing the national anthem.”  Perhaps even more explosive was then-President Johannes Rau’s assertion that he was not ‘proud’ to be German. 
The country’s old guard tended to agree with these condemnations of pride, believing the country was responsible for too much evil in the world to ever again dream of being a proud people.  Others argued Germany had become a force for good in the world and that its strong record of environmental protection, technological advancement, and human rights advocacy had distanced the country enough from its checkered past to assess the viability of national pride.     
Perhaps it is this lingering reluctance to embrace national pride that has led to the formation of remarkably strong regional identities.  In Berlin, for example, it would be equally as treasonous to sport an FC Munich jersey as it would be to drink a Munich-made beer when local beers are available.  This “buy local” attitude permeates life here in Berlin.  Everywhere are bakeries, chocolate shops, restaurants, bicycle stores, and groceries that have no national presence.  Many buy local ingredients, use local labor, and sell only locally.  This model, in many ways considered antiquated in the United States, thrives in Berlin.  While national chains such as Rossman, ReWe, Volkswagen, and others have strong presences in the city, the ease with which one can find regional and local chains is astounding.
For multinational corporations looking to enter this market, this preference for local items must be a vexing one.  To be sure, the likes of Starbucks and McDonald’s have done well in Germany if the omnipresent lines of people waiting outside are any indication of success.  Coca-Cola can be bought almost everywhere, and New York Yankees baseball hats can be found in most trendy clothing stores.  But one still cannot help but feel these retailers are here more for American tourists and curious locals than for the average Berliner.  To the extent that the city’s inhabitants continue to buy local, small-scale businesses will remain a mainstay in the local economy.  This prospect seems especially realistic given the continued inability of Germans to reconcile modern national pride and past atrocities. 

Location: Berlin - Mitte District

Grüße aus Pennsylvania!

Hello and welcome to my GeoBlog!

My name is Ian Button, and I am a rising junior pursuing dual finance and German majors as well as a minor in international business.  Outside of the classroom, I strive to read and write about geopolitics.  Of particular interest are the concepts of “financial power” and the role of finance in hegemony.  

In just 11 days, I will arrive in Berlin’s Tegel Airport for a 10-12 month study abroad experience.  The Institute for the International Education of Students (IES) and Humboldt Universit�t zu Berlin will serve as my home base as I explore the city’s economic, political, and cultural scenes.  I hope to use my time in Berlin as a launching pad for my eventual thesis research.  As I gain exposure to the world of geopolitical risk analysis, global political economy, and strategic studies, I will refine the below assessment of the U.S.-Germany relationship.  

Germany and the United States enjoy a mutually beneficial relationship anchored by strong trade ties. While neighbors such as Canada and Mexico, our first- and third- largest trade partners, are perhaps more vital to the American economy, Germany occupies a distinct and important position that cannot be ignored. Other members of the European Union – particularly France – are often wary of greater economic interdependence with the United States, often obstructing free trade agreements and other political measures.  Germany, however, has voiced its support for full economic integration at a swift yet sustainable pace while also advocating fiscal austerity in the wake of the European financial crises.  Historically speaking, the United States has pursued similar objectives. 

Since the end of World War II, the United States has been heavily involved in German affairs. Beginning with the Marshall Plan, an aid package designed to finance the rebuilding of a then-broken Europe, trade ties between the two nations have taken on a new significance. As one of the world’s largest exporters – competitive even with the likes of China – it is imperative that Germany not jeopardize its relationship with the US, the single largest consumer of goods worldwide. This relationship may not guarantee agreement  on any given issue but it does create an environment rife with trade and economic liberalization, to the benefit of both nations.

This fall will prove interesting in light of the German Bundeswahl, or federal elections. Chancellor Merkel will face rivals from other parties, each of which is jostling for position. If Merkel is reelected, austerity in Europe will reign supreme. If not, Germany may see the rise of a Francois Hollande lookalike. A pivot now, given the tempestuous economic state of Europe, would likely have a dramatic impact on globalization and trade between the EU and the US.


Ian R. Button


Location: Bellefonte, Pennsylvania